Gaps and Gap Analysis
a gap is an area on a price chart indicates that there were no trades. Normally this occurs between the time period when the market closes on one day and open’s up the next day. Lot’s of things can cause this, such as an earnings report coming out after the stock market has closed for the day. If the earnings were significantly higher than expected, many investors might place buy orders for the next day. This could result in the price opening higher than the previous day’s close. If the trading on that day continues to trade above that point, a gap will exist in the price chart. Gaps can offer evidence that something important has happened to the fundamentals or the psychology of the crowd that is accompanying this market movement.
Gaps appear more frequently on daily charts, where there is oppurtunity prevailing every day to create an opening gap. Gaps on weekly or monthly charts are fairly rare; Gaps can be subdivided into four basic categories: Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion.
Common Gaps
A price gap found on a price chart for an asset. These gaps are brought about by normal market forces and, as the name implies, are very common. They are represented graphically by a non-linear jump or drop from one point on the chart to another point.
Sometimes referred to as a trading gap or an area gap, the common gap is usually uneventful. In fact, they can be caused by a stock going ex-dividend when the trading volume is low. These gaps are common and usually get filled fairly quickly. “Getting filled” means that the price action at a later time usually retraces at the least to the last day before the gap. This is also known as closing the gap.
A common gap usually appears in a trading range or congestion area, and reinforces the apparent lack of interest in the stock at that time. Many times this is further exacerbated by low trading volume. Being aware of these types of gaps is good, but doubtful that they will produce a trading opportunities.
0
Breakaway Gaps
A term used in technical analysis. A breakaway gap represents a gap in the movement of a stock price supported by levels of high volume.
Breakaway gaps are the exciting ones. They occur when the price action is breaking out of their trading range or congestion area. To understand gaps, one has to understand the nature of congestion areas in the market. A congestion area is just a price range in which the market has traded for some period of time, usually a few weeks or so. The area near the top of the congestion area is usually resistance when approached from below. Likewise, the area near the bottom of the congestion area is support when approached from above. To break out of these areas requires market enthusiasm and, either, many more buyers than sellers for upside breakouts or more sellers than buyers for downside breakouts.
Volume will (should) pick up significantly, for not only the increased enthusiasm, but many are holding positions on the wrong side of the breakout and need to cover or sell them. It is better if the volume does not happen until the gap occurs. This means that the new change in market direction has a chance of continuing. The point of breakout now becomes the new support (if an upside breakout) or resistance (if a downside breakout). Don’t fall into the trap of thinking this type of gap, if associated with good volume, will be filled soon. It might take a long time. Go with the fact that a new trend in the direction of the stock has taken place, and trade accordingly. Notice in the chart below how prices spent over 2 months without going lower than about 41. When they did, it was with increased volume and a downward breakaway gap.
Runaway Gaps
Runaway gaps are also called measuring gaps, and are best described as gaps that are caused by increased interest in the stock. For runaway gaps to the upside, it usually represents traders who did not get in during the initial move of the up trend and while waiting for a retracement in price, decided it was not going to happen. Increased buying interest happens all of a sudden, and the price gaps above the previous day’s close. This type of runaway gap represents an almost panic state in traders. Also, a good uptrend can have runaway gaps caused by significant news events that cause new interest in the stock. In the chart below, note the significant increase in volume during and after the runaway gap.
Runaway gaps can also happen in downtrends. This usually represents increased liquidation of that stock by traders and buyers who are standing on the sidelines. These can become very serious as those who are holding onto the stock will eventually panic and sell – but sell to whom? The price has to continue to drop and gap down to find buyers. Not a good situation.